Broker tips: Inchcape, Trainline
By Iain Gilbert
Date: Friday 23 Oct 2026
(Sharecast News) - Deutsche Bank cut its Inchcape target price to 750p from 870p and reiterated its 'hold' rating on the stock, warning that the distributor's product portfolio was losing ground in a market rapidly shifting toward new‑energy vehicles.
The German bank said Inchcape's third‑quarter update added to concerns, with volumes up 3% but lagging a global market growing 9%. Organic revenue growth slowed to 1%, down from 5% in the first half, against tougher comparatives.
Performance varied sharply by region, with volumes in the Americas rising 10% but still underperforming a 24% market gain due to logistical issues, while Europe and Africa delivered a stronger showing, with volumes up 16% against a 2% market rise. However, Asia-Pacific trading was "particularly weak", with volumes down 37% versus a 5% market increase. Australia was the standout drag, with volumes plunging 50% against a flat market.
Deutsche Bank said the group's FY26 guidance had assumed a successful new product launch in Australia, but the update made clear this had not materialised. Accelerated NEV adoption in the region was contributing to both volume declines and margin pressure, reinforcing the broker's view that Inchcape's current portfolio was not sufficiently aligned with the pace of change in the automotive market.
DB said its reduced target price reflected these mounting headwinds and the risk that underperformance persists as NEV penetration continues to rise.
Canaccord Genuity downgraded Trainline to 'hold' from 'buy' and cut its target price on the stock to 213p, warning that new regulatory proposals for Great British Railways pose a material threat to the group's long‑term competitive position.
The Canadian bank said the Office of Rail and Road's draft Retail Code of Practice, published on 9 October, went "one regulatory step too far", particularly the government's rejection of economic parity between GBR and third‑party retailers.
With GBR's retail operations set to be funded via a public service contract covering online, station and on‑board sales, Canaccord argued the framework leaves scope for cross‑subsidy and risks creating a structurally advantaged competitor in online rail retail.
Provisions on self‑preferencing were also weaker than expected, requiring GBR only to avoid "undue" advantage, while enforcement mechanisms were softened, with complaints directed to GBR first and no pause in decisions during referrals. Although access commitments were incrementally positive, the broker said the overall package increased competitive risk and would likely weigh on sentiment.
Canaccord highlighted further concerns around future fares regulation and commission levels, which remain the biggest open variable for Trainline's UK consumer business.
While no estimate changes were made, Canaccord lowered its terminal free‑cash‑flow yield assumption to around 9.5%, reflecting limited re‑rating potential under the new regulatory landscape.
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